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notes/main.typ

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#import "@preview/clean-math-paper:0.2.4": *
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#set par(first-line-indent: 1em)
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#set page(margin: 1.75in)
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#set par(leading: 0.55em, first-line-indent: 1.8em, justify: true)
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#set text(font: "New Computer Modern")
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#show par: set par(spacing: 0.55em)
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#show heading: set block(above: 1.4em, below: 1em)
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#let date = datetime.today().display("[month repr:long] [day], [year]")
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// (id: 1, name: ""),
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// ),
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date: date,
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heading-color: rgb("#0000ff"),
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heading-color: rgb("#000000"),
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link-color: rgb("#008002"),
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// Insert your abstract after the colon, wrapped in brackets.
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// Example: `abstract: [This is my abstract...]`
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)
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#outline()
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#pagebreak()
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The potential outcome model is an example of latent structure model. The observed random variable is determined by some unobservable/latent variable is in this calss.
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#definition("The Latent structure model")
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The observed random variable $X$ is determined by a high dimensional latent variable $Z$ by a map $X = f(Z)$.
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#definition("The Latent structure model")[
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The observed random variable $X$ is determined by a high dimensional latent variable $Z$ by a map $X = f(Z)$.]
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#example("Fisher sharp null hypothesis in randomized experiment of causal inference")
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- The observed random variable is $(A, Y)$ determined by three independent latent variable $(A, Y(0), Y(1)), A in {0,1}, Y = A Y(1) + (1-A) Y(0)$, consider two submodels:
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#example("Fisher sharp null hypothesis in randomized experiment of causal inference")[
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The observed random variable is $(A, Y)$ determined by three latent variable $(A, Y(0), Y(1)), A in {0,1}, Y = A Y(1) + (1-A) Y(0)$, consider two submodels:
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- $cal(P)_1$: $Y(1) - Y(0) = 0, Y(1) perp A, Y(0) perp A$
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- $cal(P)_2$: $Y(1) - Y(0) = Z eq.not 0$, but $Y(1) =^d Y(0), Y(1) perp A, Y(0) perp A$.
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The model 2 is not empty, take
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$ Y(0), epsilon ~ cal(N)(0,1), Y(0) perp epsilon , Z = -1 /2 Y(0) + sqrt(3)/2 epsilon $
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then $Y(1) ~ cal(N)(0,1)$ and $Y(1) =^d Y(0)$.
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The model 2 is not empty, take
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$ Y(0), epsilon ~ cal(N)(0,1), Y(0) perp epsilon , Z = -1 /2 Y(0) + sqrt(3)/2 epsilon $
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then $Y(1) ~ cal(N)(0,1)$ and $Y(1) =^d Y(0)$.
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On the observed data level, we can not distinguish these two models since they both have the same conditional distribution of $Y|A$, therefore they are undistinguishable in modeling stage.
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On the observed data level, we can not distinguish these two models since they both have the same conditional distribution of $Y|A$, therefore they are undistinguishable in modeling stage.
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This example is the reason why the sharp null hypothesis can not be tested in randomized experiment, and also the joint distribution of $(Y(0),Y(1))$ is not identifiable.
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This example is the reason why the sharp null hypothesis can not be tested in randomized experiment, and also the joint distribution of $(Y(0),Y(1))$ is not identifiable. ]
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@wu2025promises talk about the identification of joint distribution of potential outcomes under some assumptions.
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@mukhinkernel
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= References
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#bibliography("Master.bib")

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