the real world #58
Description
Sept 14 blog in Free Range Statistics-R
I'm an ecological scientist who has studied complex systems for 50 + years. I can't tell you how many times I've approached a system with standard "theory" in mind, and had nature throw a curve ball at me. Your advice, "use theory", is exactly like "look under the street light for your lost key". If you're lucky, it works. But in a poorly understood complex system with multiple possible variables influencing any outcome, there's a high probability that the key is somewhere else, and will never be found if we don't look in the dark.
So, what's your statistically blessed advice for figuring out how the complex real world works? I'm looking for understanding, not prediction.