Do the tropical cyclone genesis indices track this bias in nino3.4 as we would expect? I.e does the bias propagate into hazards with which there are teleconnections?

[sdat2]

• Calculate tropical cyclone indices on reanalysis, and try and find comparable results to check it has been correctly coded.
• See if we can replicate the results from Carmargo Emanuel and Sobel, 2007 that there is a link with sheer.
• Calculate on CMIP6 ensemble members in the most efficient manner.
• Do the biases in CMIP6 ensemble members influence their trend in tropical cyclone genesis indices?

Some initial paper suggestions from Prof. Dan Chavas (Purdue University)

• Nice overview of the genesis indices: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wcc.373?casa_token=bEDmf7kYfGIAAAAA%3Al64qyjk7TIhh-YAEx3zwj7CCWk_LJh4JKaew8lFlix8v0Yz5jeCfoCat1oYexnILblokoqYUPsPpC5c
• Hoogewind et al 2020: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/5/jcli-d-18-0862.1.xml -- our paper using absolute vorticity and Ventilation Index; we looked at their joint distribution but you could just multiply them together.
• Tang and Emanuel 2012: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/93/12/bams-d-11-00165.1.xml
• Camargo et al 2014: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/27/24/jcli-d-13-00505.1.xml -- shows that mid-level saturation deficit may be superior to mid-level relative humidity

Question: Do the tropical cyclone genesis indices track this bias in nino3.4?
Hypothesis: The trend in the tropical cyclone genesis indices corresponds to that which would have been expected given the trend in nino3.4 and is statistically significant, and robust to the start year of the trend.
H0: There is no significant trend in the tropical cyclone genesis indices over the North Atlantic.

@article{camargo2016tropical,
  title={Tropical cyclones in climate models},
  author={Camargo, Suzana J and Wing, Allison A},
  journal={Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change},
  volume={7},
  number={2},
  pages={211--237},
  year={2016},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}

@article{camargo2007use,
  title={Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis},
  author={Camargo, Suzana J and Emanuel, Kerry A and Sobel, Adam H},
  journal={Journal of Climate},
  volume={20},
  number={19},
  pages={4819--4834},
  year={2007}
}

@article{hoogewind2020exploring,
  title={Exploring controls on tropical cyclone count through the geography of environmental favorability},
  author={Hoogewind, Kimberly A and Chavas, Daniel R and Schenkel, Benjamin A and O’Neill, Morgan E},
  journal={Journal of Climate},
  volume={33},
  number={5},
  pages={1725--1745},
  year={2020},
  publisher={American Meteorological Society}
}

@article{tang2012ventilation,
  title={A ventilation index for tropical cyclones},
  author={Tang, Brian and Emanuel, Kerry},
  journal={Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
  volume={93},
  number={12},
  pages={1901--1912},
  year={2012},
  publisher={American Meteorological Society}
}

@article{camargo2014testing,
  title={Testing the performance of tropical cyclone genesis indices in future climates using the HiRAM model},
  author={Camargo, Suzana J and Tippett, Michael K and Sobel, Adam H and Vecchi, Gabriel A and Zhao, Ming},
  journal={Journal of Climate},
  volume={27},
  number={24},
  pages={9171--9196},
  year={2014}
}