This study investigates strategic scenarios driven by renewable capacity expansion and incorporates the strategies of electrification, green hydrogen deployment, and carbon offsetting to align EU energy security with the long-term imperative of climate change mitigation. The following contents are included in this repository to support our key findings:
- Codes: include all codes to evaluate the strategic scenarios.
- Data: include all data used during the analysis.
The input data files contain scenario-specific parameters used in the modeling framework. These include renewable generation profiles such as solar radiation (EU_rad.xlsx, DE_NUTS2.xlsx), wind power output (EU_wpo.xlsx), cost projections for technologies including solar (inp_solar_cpx.xlsx, inp_solar_opx.xlsx), wind (inp_wind_cpx.xlsx, inp_wind_opx.xlsx), battery storage and interface systems (inp_bst_cpx.xlsx, inp_bst_opx.xlsx, inp_bit_cpx.xlsx, inp_bit_opx.xlsx), electrolyzers (inp_elec_cpx.xlsx), DAC systems (inp_dac_cpx.xlsx), heat pumps (inp_hp_cpx.xlsx), specifications for hydrogen pipeline infrastructure (inp_hyd_length.xlsx, inp_hpipe_cpx.xlsx, inp_hpipe_opx.xlsx ), and energy price assumptions across EU member states (inp_ele_price.xlsx and inp_ng_price.xlsx).
The output data files present estimates of natural gas displacement and avoided emissions across key sectors, including light industries (str1_part1_solar_LI, str1_part1_wind_LI), electricity and heating (str1_part2_solar_EH, str1_part2_wind_EH), and road transport (str1_part3_solar_RT, str1_part3_wind_RT) for the electrification strategy (alongside frequency distributions of net load ramp rates in str1_part4_NLRR); heavy industries and heavy trucks (str2_part1_solar_HI, str2_part1_wind_HI) for green hydrogen deployment; and carbon offsetting contributions (str3_part1_solar_CC, str3_part1_wind_CC), under the investigated scenarios and time horizons across EU member states.
The repository includes code files used to implement the scenario-based modeling framework applied in this study. These files reflect the different cases evaluated across the renewable technology scenarios and associated transition strategies:
- str1_elec_solar
- str1_elec_wind
- str2_hyd_solar
- str2_hyd_wind
- str3_dac_solar
- str3_dac_wind
Please use the following citation when using the data, methods or results of this work:
Lal, A., Tavoni, M., Preuss, N., and You, F. Aligning EU Energy Security and Climate Mitigation Through Targeted Transition Strategies. Submitted to Nature Communications.